The Art of Prediction
The Art of Prediction will soon be published in both Korean and English.
Foreword
Prologue
In the age of AI — what will we make a living from?
Reading the Market's Signals
Follow the Interests
Identify the decision-makers first · Write down their gains and losses · Judge whether incentives are aligned or in conflict
Weighted Trust — GIGO in the AI Era
Classify your sources — primary data, secondary citation, or AI summary? · Check the interests behind them · Ask about skin in the game
The Consensus Trap
Short, medium or long term — which are you looking at? · Check second-order effects · Measure the gap between consensus and fundamentals
A Balanced Perspective
Deliberately write one line of opposing data · Doubt the smoothest story first · Give methodology for numbers, ranges for language
Idea Meritocracy
Separate ideas from people · Evaluate decisions apart from outcomes · Keep a live-testing journal of assumptions at decision time
Cycles — History Repeats
Identify where you are in the cycle · Find the closest historical rhyme · Write down the decision that goes against everyone
Tools for Thinking
Intuition as Data AI Cannot See
Don't let a signal slip — write it down in one line · Ask whether it is an asset or a trap · Check it against other eyes
Being Wrong but Successful — Bayesian Thinking
Record your priors · Update the moment new information arrives · Is it a one-way door or a two-way door?
Prepare for the Black Swan
Cut sunk costs · Check for true diversification · Build reserves on the far side of efficiency — just-in-case
Beyond the Summary
Ask for assumptions before conclusions · Trace every word and every number · Treat the absence of data as data
When Context Beats Logic
Identify the cultural context · Stretch the view across 40, 50, 100 years · Measure the gap with rational judgment
It's Still a Human Call
Leave data collection to AI · Check weights and adjustments with domain knowledge · Stake your own reputation
Closing
Epilogue
Closing notes from the desk — on turning a corner
Appendix
Commodities 101 · Glossary · Notes