AI tracked the evolution of conflict scenarios involving the U.S., Israel, Iran, and other GCC countries, illustrating how the probabilities of each scenario evolved over time and how they correlated with commodity prices, including oil.
AI tracked the evolution of conflict scenarios involving the U.S., Israel, Iran, and other GCC countries, illustrating how the probabilities of each scenario evolved over time and how they correlated with commodity prices, including oil.
Strait of Hormuz Crisis · Scenario Time-Series · Updated Aug 3, 2026
Four scenarios, 127 days. War → MOU → collapse → escort attack.
The escort attack is the 1980s ladder-rung — and S3 leads at 56%, the war-time high.
IRGC claims (unconfirmed) hitting 2 tankers under US military escort, 4 more turned back — targeting the convoy model's credibility before the 43-nation coalition launches. In the 1980s Tanker War this exact rung preceded direct US-Iran naval engagements (Praying Mantis, 1988). Whether convoys sail this week — and whether Iran attacks them again — is the S3 confirmation trigger.
②
C1 is a complete round-trip: 3 → 50 → 3. A signed MOU is not a done deal.
Official archive: C1 ground at 11–18% through May, detonated on the 11:15 PM Fars signal (18 → 38 overnight), peaked at exactly 50% at Bürgenstock — then collapsed to its all-time low of 3% on the $100-break day (D+147). The June lesson held all the way: Iranian-side signals lead; ceremonies don't.
③
The toll regime was the base case before the MOU existed.
C4's official all-time peak — 43% at D+75 — landed deep in the May PGSA era, five weeks before Bürgenstock, and it held 38–43 across the whole month. The MOU's 60-day toll-free window was C4 in embryo; the Jul 28 Omani Malacca-model proposal was its first written text. The Aug 1 re-cut then split it: "war-that-functions" mass → S2, leaving S4 as the strict Iran-Oman diplomacy path (8%).
④
Price and probability tell different stories — twice.
May: Brent re-spiked to $112.10 (D+81) while the scenario map barely moved — premium repriced, distribution stable. August: the map says 56% regional war while Brent sits in an $84–92 band for a third week. The market prices Exxon Woods ("Hormuz has to reopen — those barrels are going to have to flow"), not the escalation ladder — for now.
⑤
"Selective control" is the S2 equilibrium materializing at 26%.
IRGC stops some tankers, lets millions of barrels pass at Tehran's discretion; CPC operates at ~80%; a 43-nation coalition contains rather than resolves. A regionalized war that functions economically. If strike cadence decays without a deal, S2 reabsorbs probability from S3 with no headline event.
⑥
14 days on the clock.
The nuclear window expires Aug 17 — the last hard forcing function. Watch: coalition convoys sail (S3 trigger) · Netanyahu-Trump outcome (S3 amplifier) · Iran-Oman channel produces a text (S4 trigger) · CPC holds through Black Sea escalation · the $84–92 band into Jackson Hole (Aug 27–29).
HORMUZ SCENARIO TIME SERIES · v5-GC compact · full data table & 25 inflection points in the full edition
73 obs (35 official) · D+31 → D+157 · Aug 3, 2026
AI-assisted content. Verify independently. · by Daejin Lee · Strait of Hormuz Crisis Update
