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# The Art of Prediction
- URL: https://www.altviewinsights.com/publications/the-art-of-prediction/
- Published: 2026-08-08T12:09:59.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-31T16:21:19.000Z
- Description: The Art of Prediction will soon be published in both Korean and English.
- Author: Daejin Lee
- Tags: #pub, #en

**Contents**THE ART OF PREDICTION

*PART 0*

### Foreword

[00PrologueIn the age of AI — what will we make a living from?Read sample →](https://www.altviewinsights.com/publications/the-art-of-prediction-00-prologue/) 

*PART 1*

### Reading the Market's Signals

[01Follow the InterestsIdentify the decision-makers first · Write down their gains and losses · Judge whether incentives are aligned or in conflictRead sample →](https://www.altviewinsights.com/publications/yeceugyi-gisul-weoncig-1-sijang-gyeoljeonggweonjadeulyi-iigeul-bora-3/) 

02

#### Weighted Trust — GIGO in the AI Era

Classify your sources — primary data, secondary citation, or AI summary? · Check the interests behind them · Ask about skin in the game

03

#### The Consensus Trap

Short, medium or long term — which are you looking at? · Check second-order effects · Measure the gap between consensus and fundamentals

04

#### A Balanced Perspective

Deliberately write one line of opposing data · Doubt the smoothest story first · Give methodology for numbers, ranges for language

05

#### Idea Meritocracy

Separate ideas from people · Evaluate decisions apart from outcomes · Keep a live-testing journal of assumptions at decision time

06

#### Cycles — History Repeats

Identify where you are in the cycle · Find the closest historical rhyme · Write down the decision that goes against everyone

*PART 2*

### Tools for Thinking

07

#### Intuition as Data AI Cannot See

Don't let a signal slip — write it down in one line · Ask whether it is an asset or a trap · Check it against other eyes

08

#### Being Wrong but Successful — Bayesian Thinking

Record your priors · Update the moment new information arrives · Is it a one-way door or a two-way door?

09

#### Prepare for the Black Swan

Cut sunk costs · Check for true diversification · Build reserves on the far side of efficiency — just-in-case

10

#### Beyond the Summary

Ask for assumptions before conclusions · Trace every word and every number · Treat the absence of data as data

11

#### When Context Beats Logic

Identify the cultural context · Stretch the view across 40, 50, 100 years · Measure the gap with rational judgment

12

#### It's Still a Human Call

Leave data collection to AI · Check weights and adjustments with domain knowledge · Stake your own reputation

*PART 3*

### Closing

13

#### Epilogue

Closing notes from the desk — on turning a corner

14

#### Appendix

Commodities 101 · Glossary · Notes